March 17, 2008
Advanced Bracketology: Theory and Practice
After an intense few hours of analysis, psychoanalysis, electro-shock therapy and just plain guessing, I am ready to unveil the first draft of my brackets:
A few notable features:
1. Memphis falls hard and fast. I think that their Achilles Heel (terrible free-throw shooting) will catch up with them sooner rather than later.
2. Duke is in the Elite Eight. That may be generous. But then again, maybe it's not generous enough. But that is exactly the kind of sick trip Coach K, that acknowledged grandmaster of edge-work (careful Dean: soon he'll want to spoon with you), had programmed in from the start. This Duke team is better than what has been fielded in the past 2-3 years, but not as good as those fin-de-siecle squads K was fronting, or even those that took the court in the early years of this decade. So, while Duke sucks (that's a given) it is harder to tell just how badly this year.
3. No revenge for the righteous/UNC does not get to kick the Hoyas squah in the nuts-I just don't think they'll get past the Jayhawks.
4. Bruce Pearl gets a reprieve-I think it possible that Louisville will actually beat Tennessee, but the point is that I had to choose one of them to be the next victim.
5. Prepare yourself for LA Riots Part II: when UCLA goes down hard with fleeting glory in sight, those savages on the left coast will not take it well. The Crips, the Bloods and, worst of all, Lindsay "Marilyn for Trailer Trash" Lohan will be out that night trying to vent the most savage kind of vibes.
6. Prepare yourself for Chapel Hill Riots Part II: I have spent thousands on illegal fireworks from the Great State of South Carolina, and will expect to see some payoff from it.
Posted by dag at 2:04 PM | Comments (0)
March 9, 2008
A Solution to the Drought Here in NC
Has anyone thought about somehow collecting the sweet tears of the Cameron Crazies envy and diverting it into the local reservoirs?
I like that sign "Coach K has 800 more wins than Tyler"...
Yeah, well, last night Tyler got just a little bit closer.
I'll give Duke this though: they are fundmentally a lot better than some of the teams ranked ahead of them (eg Memphis).
Posted by dag at 7:22 PM | Comments (1)
March 18, 2007
Although this increasingly constitutes beating a dead horse...
Posted by dag at 2:45 PM
March 13, 2007
Initial Bracket
Here are my first thoughts on the way the dance will play out (click on the bracket image for larger):
Sentiment guided two of my choices, but the rest is based on the coldest and most cutting-edge sort of science. Trust me.
Update: Several of the sickest kind of junkie bracketologists you'll ever run across have had a look at mine, and I have peered into the abyss that is their selections. A few interesting reactions:
1. They seem to admire my upset prediction for Maryland-Florida, in much the same way that many Native American cultures saw psychotics as wise men. One suggested my deification if this turns out to be correct.
2. One intriguing upset prediction their choices have suggested to me is Duke over UCLA. It could happen...In the last few years Duke has arguably underperformed in the Big Dance, but it all seemed so terribly predictable in the end: with a short bench and great exertion in the ACC tournament, they ran low on gas and high on hubris by the time of the tournament. This year they've had a lot of opportunity to rest and regroup and have gotten very little respect. They have something to prove, and tricks yet up their sleeve, methinks.
3. As a Great Dane, I made the emotional choice in picking Albany over Virgina. However, some of these cold number crunchers reached the same conclusion.
4. No one seems to believe that more than two of the 1 seeds will see the Final Four.
Posted by dag at 4:43 PM
March 12, 2007
Oh: It's on...: part deux
Some thoughts on the bracket:
1. UNC drew the toughest bracket. No doubt about that. I may be crying like Nancy Kerrigan ("WHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHYYYYYYYY?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!") in saying it, but it doesn't make it any less true. We've got four really dangerous teams in our path, including Marquette or Michigan State (pick your poison), Texas (a 4 seed?!?! In any other year they'd be a 2, no doubt about that), Georgetown and, at every stage, UNC. If UNC emerges from this bracket, they will be the national champion. Bank on it (but remember the big "If" at the start of the prediction).
2. Ohio State drew the easiest bracket, and by far. I can't remember such a poof bracket. This is probably some sort of sick and twisted handicap based on graduation rates (the NCAA's reasoning being that their kids better shine at basketball since they have no fall-back position).
3. Worst draw for a lower seed team: Kentucky. Yikes! With Tubby under pressure, they will have a hard time even getting into the field of 32.
4. First round upsets watch for: 14 seed Oral Roberts over 3 seed Washington State; 13 seed Albany over 4 seed Virgina; 10 seed Gonzaga over 7 seed Indiana; 10 seed Georgia Tech over 7 seed UNLV.
5. Placing my reputation further out on a limb, the 1st 1 seed to fall: Florida, to 4 seed Maryland.
Looking ahead for UNC: Wright leaves for the NBA, Tyler stays and UNC wins a national championship next year. And anyway...
Believe in the green light: the orgiastic future that year by year recedes before us. It eluded us then, but that's no matter-tomorrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms farther.... And one fine morning--
So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.
Posted by dag at 8:30 PM
Oh: It's on...
The brackets are out and the dance will soon begin. The talking heads all seem to be writing off the Heels. The irony is that the more they do so the better our chances become: this is a team that needs to hear that it has work to do. They have more depth and talent that any other team, and yet...
Posted by dag at 1:12 PM
March 4, 2007
Sweep
In other news, get out the broom: we swept Duke.
As for the bad craziness of the conclusion of the game, the ejection was unfair (and the suspension is even more unfair). Yes, Gerald Henderson was recklessly violent in defending Hansbrough. Yes, that kind of crap could really get Hansbrough hurt. The trouble is that ACC refs have been allowing vicious, illegal tactics to defend against him all season. It was only a matter of time before he got hurt (the actual timing of his injury was simply another example of the Great Magnet's sense of humor). The refs should be suspended for allowing defenses against him up to but not quite including the use of tasers. Henderson should not be made an example to cover for poor refing all season. Coach K's reaction may have been idiotic, but it is also beside the point.
Posted by dag at 11:39 PM
March 2, 2007
Whither the Heels?
What happened to the team that crushed Arizona? North Carolina has now lost three of her last five and two in a row. I think it is time to recognize an inconvenient truth: at this very moment, this is at best a middle of the road team making the least of its considerable talent.
I will grant North Carolina a few things:
1. The ACC is the toughest conference in the nation. Period. Ohio State, Wisconsin and UCLA would all have much more checkered records in the ACC.
2. Every team they face gets their jones on for the Tar Heels.
3. The Yellow Jackets were on fire last night. I was really struck by just how many heavily defended threes they were making.
Still, one can't help but feel something is terribly wrong. They are less cohesive now than a month ago. They lack defensive intensity. Their already poor perimeter shooting has gotten even worse.
Posted by dag at 10:36 AM
February 8, 2007
Boooooooyah!
You know what Tyler Hansbrough is sayin': "Ohhhhh yeah, Cameron Crybabies: that just HAPPENED!!!!!!!"
And speaking of Cameron Crybabies:
Posted by dag at 12:06 AM
February 7, 2007
Latest News
In today's installment, we have a very old love story and, of course, the spoiled little hot-house orchids over at Duke
Posted by dag at 3:22 PM
February 5, 2007
"paddling up the Nile of my Duke hatred, looking for its source."
For the uninitiated, Wednesday night will be one of the two or three most important days of the year: Duke and UNC will collide in Duke's house. I need to ramp up my blood oxygen levels in anticipation.
Posted by dag at 3:09 PM | Comments (0)
February 3, 2007
Time for Decimation
Decimation is an old Roman military punishment. I have to think Roy William's is considering it right now. Today the Tar Heels were basically beaten by three guys: Atsur, Costner and McCauley. In each of North Carolina's three losses this year, there have been two ingredients: the other team has played their game of the year and the Tar Heels simply did not show defensive intensity or offensive coordination. UNC has no one but themselves to blame for all three losses.
The other thing that is notable about all three losses was the other team's ability to prevent an explosive Tar Heel run before the ten minute mark in the second half. North Carolina has really only had two types of games: those where they assassinated the other team and those where they lost by a fairly slim margin. They have to learn how to win close games because by March they'll encounter teams (Florida, perhaps?) that they will not be able to assassinate.
Posted by dag at 5:52 PM | Comments (0)
January 26, 2007
Time is on Duke's Side
From ESPN's Jay Bilas:
When Clemson's Vernon Hamilton scored on a layup to make it 66-63, the clock stopped with 5.0 seconds left. On the ensuing play, when Josh McRoberts' errant inbounds pass went directly to Hamilton, the clock did not start when Hamilton touched the ball. In fact, it did not start until the ball was all the way to the cylinder on the 3-pointer that tied the game at 66. Once the clock did start as the ball was going through the cylinder, it then ran all the way down to 1.8 seconds.
Given that the clock didn't start on time, it was difficult for the referees to determine exactly how much time elapsed from when Hamilton first touched the ball to when his 3 went through the hoop. Common sense dictates, though, that it took more than 0.6 seconds for Hamilton to catch, set and release a shot and to have that shot carry 20 feet to the basket. SportsCenter put a real-time clock on the sequence and determined that 2.6 seconds had elapsed, which would have left Duke with 2.4 seconds for its final possession.
It is important to note that this timing error did not decide the game in Duke's favor. Both teams played the final possession as it was presented to them and Duke scored a legal basket to win. The timing error did, however, impact the final situation itself. With 2.4 seconds left, Duke would not have had the time to run the exact same play against the same defense and complete it.
Now, I have seen many teams score in a full-court situation with approximately 2.4 seconds left and win. In fact, I was an assistant coach on the bench in 1992 when Duke scored from a similar situation with about the same amount of time remaining to survive against Kentucky in overtime in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. I have also seen many teams fail to score in a full-court situation with much more time remaining.
Whether a different inbounds play would have worked Thursday night or whether Duke or Clemson would have gone on to win in overtime, we'll never know. What we do know is the officials made an error in getting the final game situation right. In my experience, no one regrets that more than do the officials, who want only to get it right ... every time.
-- Jay Bilas
Let's be clear: the referees did not make an honest mistake. They didn't. Full stop. I was watching that game and it was immediately clear that re-setting the clock to 4.4 seconds was a ridiculously generous spot for Duke. At most a second should have gone on (or even less, as Bilas suggests).
If they had made a mis-judgment of half a second, I might be willing to be charitable. If they had not done something like this hundreds of times before, I might be willing to be charitable. It's time to call this for what it is: the outrageously controversial calls always seem to go Duke's way. I don't think there is anyone serious who does not feel that there is something rotten in Durham. I am tired of this and think that yesterday's refs should be suspended and fined. That might send Iron Mike's buddys in stripes a message.
Posted by dag at 9:09 AM | Comments (0)
January 18, 2007
Achilles Heels
It's hard to believe that the same team that played the Hokies this weekend faced the Clemson Tigers last night. Of course, there were glimpses of the heir-apparent Heels in Blacksburg: to paraphrase somewhat one Tech player's thoughts on the game, Sunday's Heels played "thirty five minutes like a high school team and five like the Phoenix Suns". Unfortunately for Clemson, it was the latter that showed up last night.
From what I have been able to see, Carolina clearly has the best array of athletes of any team in the NCAA. The sixth through tenth guys on their ten-man rotation would be the starting five for a legitimate top 25 team. It's clear to me that in terms of fundamental talent they do exceed the Tar Heel team that won it all last time. For instance, either Hansborough or Wright are fundamentally more talented and promising than May, and I believe that Lawson will eventually exceed Felton at the point. And the shooting guards ensemble is better (I'm not sure Rashad McCants would routinely start on this team). The role players are far better this time. This years Heels are that good.
And yet there are the nagging problems:
1. Our outside shooting remains inconsistent, despite a bevy of excellent outside shooters.
2. Brandon Wright simply is not dependable from the line when it counts, and at some point come March it will really, really count. For instance, I don't think that we would have suffered either of our losses this year had Wright not gone into "clank" mode when the Zags or Hokies decided to interrupt our inside offensive rythm by going into "Hack-a-Brandon" mode. He just doesn't make teams pay for that strategy at crucial points in tough games.
3. Ty Lawson is as fast as hell, but he just doesn't shoot enough. This limits the threat he poses. And when he does shoot too often it is a drive-by lay-up. To be sure, he needs to do that more often, but he also needs to take (and make) mid-range jumpers and threes more often.
4. This is a team that is often sluggish out of the starting blocks. There have been games this year where, had they set for the whole forty minutes the pace they set in the last twenty five, we would have scored 125 points. (!) So far that hasn't hurt us (both losses have come in games where, interestingly, the Heels did in fact come out swinging), but against really good teams (the kind that can run up a 20 point lead in the opening 15 against a sluggish Heels) we could dig ourselves a very deep hole.
1a. Not only do we not have enough of a three point game, we also do not defend well against the other guy's trey.
At this point two years ago, I felt pretty good about the Heels odds of taking it all (only Villanova even came close to them in the Dance, and that was as much due to questionable back court refereeing as anything else). This year's team exceeds that national championship squad in virtually every respect in terms of fundamentals. And yet this year's team has me a lot more nervous: Felton and the gang were better executors, whatever the basic talent gap.
Posted by dag at 10:25 AM | Comments (0)
November 26, 2006
The Pre-Season NIT
Well, pre-season tournament week is over, and it seems clear that there will be no anointed ones anymore: even overhyped Florida fell.
Let's recap the Heel's wild and sick ride through the latter, fatal stages of the Pre-Season NIT. On Wednesday, Butler beat the Vols, while the Zags beat the Heels. That made the title game the Battle of the Bulldogs, which are usually long, protracted and vicious affairs where the winner is the dog that manages to stagger out of the ring and collapse dead in some quiet place out of the limelight. But not this time: Butler simply had the Zags.
Then UNC went on to beat the Vols, and in an old-fashined ass whipping kind of way.
So what does this prove? We beat the team (the Vols) that lost to the team (Butler) that beat the team that beat us (the Zags).
Most old-timers would argue that if UNC ever goes on to beat Butler (say, in the sweet hereafter known as the post-season), we'd have the Bracketology equivalent of a Mexican Standofff on our hands. It also means that if UNC does win the big one, Butler will have the kind of satisfaction that sustains generations. (Think of the kind of endorphins the French are still getting out of their early victories in the Napoleonic wars.)
I suspect what is really going on behind all of this is the old truth that transitivity is a meaningless concept in the Holy Game. Just because A can beat B, and B can beat C, A's triumph over C is not assured. It's all about matchups, which are a strange and a fickle kind of thing.
Which is probably the way of this world even beyond the Holy Game. For instance, we beat Imperial Japan in WWII, and they beat Thailand, but if we had matched up with Thailand...well, you never know. They had Muay Thai and endless bolts of premium silk; we had B-17s and 150mmm howitzers. It's hard to see how a matchup like that shakes out.
Here are some thoughts about the Heel's NIT experience:
1. The Heel's loss to the Zags was not much of a loss. Until the last 40 or so seconds, when UNC had to start fouling them, the Zags were up by maybe 2-4 points. If Brandon Wright had been able to shoot halfway decently from the line in the second half, the celebrations would have been in the Southern Part of Heaven. For that matter, if Frasor had hit just one more 3, I think the Zags would have lost. Into the last minute, momentum was with the Heels, and so I think Carolina would have had a "down to the wire" advantage. But alas, Wright did not hit his shots from the line and Frasor drew nothin' but air from the perimeter, and so it never did get down to the wire: UNC was forced to start fouling.
2. The really good news is that Brandon Wright showed something on defense. That may be very good news for the Heels: if Hansborough and Wright can coordinate effective Big Man D, it will basically leave teams no inside game option against the Heels.
3. In victory and defeat, the Heels were pretty disorganized, and that is worrisome. In the Tennessee game, it showed just how good the Heels are on a talent level. Did they run a single play correctly in the second half? And yet they whipped the Vols. But in the Gonzaga game, the Bulldogs showed that the Heels lack of cohesion can be costly: if you shut down Hansborough with a triple team and sow just enough chaos with the remaining 2 guys (and get really lucky and catch the Heels on a poor foul shooting night), you have a shot at beating this team.
The good news of course is that under General Roy, the Heels will find cohesion as the season progresses. Or he'll kill them. Hard to tell which way it will break.
But with the Heels operating as they did (like a disorganized mob of stinking drunk dockworkers) and still playing as effectively as they did (overall) against the Zags and Vols, I think we may have a national champion on our hands if they ever do find that mystical level of cohesion.
Posted by dag at 10:06 AM | Comments (0)
November 15, 2006
A Tense Night
UNC had a bit of a rough ride against Winthrop tonight, and Kansas actually fell to Oral Roberts. To be sure, UNC has an excuse: we'll be on the cover of the new SI and that can only mean the worst kind of Karma.
But the basic story was the same in both games: the "dead meat" were on fire beyond the arc. Fortunately, UNC was able to explain their position to Winthrop, but it was a stark reminder of the first rule of life in today's game: guard the three.
Guard the three.
Guard the three.
We didn't look like a national champion tonight, but that's OK: the last time we came out flat footed in an opening game, we ended the season as the national champs.
Posted by dag at 11:16 PM | Comments (0)
November 9, 2006
And so it begins....
This is a very, very important post: the first in the category "Circuses: The Holy Game" for the 2006-2007 NCAA hoops season. Thus begins a long and tough March to Madness that will end, fittingly enough, in early April (you thought I'd say March, didn't you? You cheeky monkey over-eager turd).
Pain attention, Goddammit!! This is important. Some people like to follow politics, some root for one side or another in various African civil wars and still others want to know which tribe or team is winning on Survivor: Intercourse Island or Fear Factor: Power Tools. Some even attend performances of Cats, if only to test their tolerance levels under certain types of extreme duress.
But real afficionados, I mean true connoiseurs of edge work, follow the Holy Game. So if you think you're ready to roll with us, keep your hands on the wheel and eyes on the road and remember always that there is no medal for second place in a Chicken Race like NCAA hoops.
Now, its time to get down to brass tacks. UNC returns this year loaded with almost enough talent to beat a Waffen SS division and, much more importantly, more than enough talent to beat the ever living piss out of Duke (assuming that, as God intended, the fundamentals dictate the course of events). The local rag has the thing covered, of course (for instance, here and here).
The Heels are generally ranked number 2 behind what I believe is currently the most overrated team in America. I refer of course to Florida, who, to be sure, won the Big One last, but only in the most open tournament field since the fall of Rome (or, more to the point, since Jim Valvano stumbled to the top in a gentle, earlier time before the roughly four dozen new rules his tactics prompted).
All we can do now is wait and see what rough justice will be handed out on the courts. It will all end on April 2, 2007 in the Georgia Dome.
Posted by dag at 11:38 PM | Comments (1)
October 25, 2006
Housekeeping
I have made a few changes to Aging Disgracefully, mostly in the categories department. First, I have renamed the category "Food" to be "Bread". Why, you might ask? Because it occurred to me that it might be a nice juxtaposition with "Circuses: The Holy Game", another new category. "Circuses: The Holy Game" has been created to cover the all-important upcoming NCAA basketball season.
"Immortal Beloved" will serve as a tag for all posts related to my wife. I chose this in honor of my favorite composer and because it occurred to me that the wife might interpret "The Relentlessly Nagging Shrew" as negative in tone.
"Plinian Eruptions" is a special category reserved for outbursts. I had planned on two categories here: "Plinian Eruptions: Time Warner Cable" and "Plinian Eruptions: Everything Else", but it occurred to me that that might make that area of the site seem too crowded.
"The Bittersweet Symphony" is for music. "The Epicurians" is for every form of indulgence not covered by another specific category.
"The Meditations" is where I'll go on endless and tedious philosphical digressions, each and every turn of which I am sure you, dear readers, will follow with breathless anticipation and excitement.
"I, Claudius" is where I will follow politics in the next few years. It would seem that we may be in for quite a ride in this regard. It is also where I will address all matters related to the Empire, whether of Claudius's time or ours (cleaving to the matter at hand, Cartman had the essential handle then and now: "They Don't Respect Our Authoritaaaay").
Finally, I announce this in "L'Etat", my new category related to the management of Aging Disgracefully.
Update: I have created yet another category, "Dismal Science", to house all of my ramblings on Res Economia.
Posted by dag at 11:15 PM | Comments (0)