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January 18, 2009
Hey Wolfpack Fans: Here's Something Interesting
Yesterday, Carolina won. Yay. But until we have that National Championship in hand, Carolina fans cannot, will not, breath easy. No time now for the longer view: we have things to work on (defense, foremost) and teams to beat (namely everyone in front of us, with a particular emphasis on those in our way in the field of 64).
So I thought it might be a good idea to dwell on two other games yesterday involving two other programs: NC State and Arizona State. Two years ago, when Wolfpack fans drove now Arizona State coach Herb Sendek out of NC State with their own particular brand of acidic craziness, I blogged at the time that they would live to regret this titanic folly. In response I received 9 comments from Wolfpack fans, 1 rational in nature and 8 dialed in from outer-space, protesting.
Essentially, I argued at the time that the bill of indictment of Sendek by Wolpack fans was nearly wholly groundless. Statistically, the program had been improving steadily over the Sendek era. NC State's recruiting power had slowly, steadily grown. The slow growth patches during Sendek's tenure had in part been as much about bad luck as anything else: his lost early years were consumed by an inherited and corrosive star in Kenny Inge and the struggle to find the offensive style that would finally increase NC State's win percentage; Josh Powell's idiotic decision to leave early (and this is not something that just happened under Sendek: remember Joe Forte? Corey Maggette?); etc.. Finally, the rather tedious offensive style that Sendek did eventually craft did not reflect his short comings as a coach but rather the constraints of his circumstances: when he arrived at NC State the school was not, and had not for a long time, been attractive to the kind of players that could support the more explosive approach that is par for the course at UNC and, it hurts this Tarheel to admit it but it is true, Duke. Sendek's style had produced the highest win percentage he could with material he had to work with, and in the end led to a long string of Big Dance appearances and a steadily rising profile for NC State, which is crucial to rebuilding recruiting power. Driving him out of town squandered years of patient and solid building.
The Wolfpack fans who objected to my arguments essentially relied on a single counter-argument: that NC State's franchise has always been on an equal footing with that of Duke or UNC, and hence all of State's recruiting challenges, sub-par (by the UNC or Duke measure) performance, etc. were attributable to Sendek's failings. It is difficult to respond to this objection, since it is fundamentally not grounded in reality.
I wonder if the subsequent embarrassing search for Sendek's successor made them realize anything about reality and NC State basketball. The high profile candidates favored by Pack fans all fell through, and it became clear that essentially none of them were unwilling to go to NC State at any price: in light of Sendek's treatment, they understood that NC State fans did not want a coach but rather a magician (too late for that, anyway: Duke already landed Lords Voldemort and Vader, rolled into one, back in '80).
Well, yesterday both the Wolfpack and Arizona State won. The first was an anomaly: NC State had their first ACC victory since...well I think the last one was at a point where John Edwards still had some wind in the sails of his Presidential campaign. But I have trouble, in my dotage, remembering that far back. The other was Arizona State's victory over number 9 (AP poll) UCLA.
Here is an interesting comparison of where the two programs stand:
-Arizona State is 15-3 (4-2 in the PAC10) with a win over a ranked opponent; NC State is 10-5 (1-2 in the ACC), with no wins over ranked opponents;
-Arizona State is 16 in the AP rankings; NC State is unranked (they in fact received no votes last week);
-Perhaps most importantly, Arizona State is 9 in the highly regarded Pomeroy rankings, with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 2 (ie, just behind number 1 UNC); NC State is 96 in the Pomeroy rankings, with an adjusted offensive efficiency rank of 82.
Number 2 versus 82 in adjusted offensive efficiency. An 80 position difference.
Think about that: the entire crux of the Wolfpack fan base's argument against Sendek was his inability to deliver an offense befitting the Pack. Now I am going to rub salt in the wound: at the time Sendek was driven out, NC State had a Pomeroy ranking of 45, and an adjusted offensive efficiency rank of 40.
So the brilliant stratagem of the Wolfpack fan base has led to... the Pack virtually doubling their Pomeroy standing.
And now for one last dose of salt: at the time Sendek was driven out of NC State, Arizona State had a Pomeroy ranking of 129, with an adjusted offensive efficiency rank of 121.
You guys aren't a Wolfpack: no wolf that stupid could survive long in the wild.
I know, I know: I'm just a Tarhole. Keep telling yourself that. Just release those endorphins and keep up the excellence...
Update: This morning Arizona State slipped (barely) to third in adjusted offensive efficiency, while NC State has risen to 81. Now it is only a 78 position difference. I think you Pack fans should go ahead and interpret this as vindication.
Posted by dag at January 18, 2009 2:07 PM
Comments
You are a Tarhol
Dont know shit about baskrttball.
Piss off
Posted by: Packman at January 18, 2009 5:34 PM
Packman: I bet you graduated from NC State's highly regarded spelling program.
Posted by: dag at January 18, 2009 5:43 PM
Fcuk you
Posted by: Anonymous at January 18, 2009 10:56 PM
Yeah, I pretty much figured that NC State was in trouble when they ditched Sendek. It really didn't make any sense. Then again, the Wolf Pack never made much sense to me either...
Posted by: The Good Rabbi at January 20, 2009 10:00 PM
Well, I really want to hammer out a rational discussion with you. The problem is that there are so many feelings involved in this discussion that it can break down into a pissing match pretty quickly.
I do want to make one correction. Kenny Inge was not inherited. He was a Herb recruit. Also, that was a pretty highly ranked class that included Damon Thornton and Archie Miller. Not saying they were great but at the time that class had a pretty good ranking.
Here's my question and try not to rationalize your answer with stuff like "he slowly improved", "several trips in a row" or anything like that. Reach down into your gut and ask, "If I were an NC State fan, would I have wanted him here for an eleventh year?"
I think you wouldn't...that's really the basis for many of us. It was played out and over and I'm happy he's doing well even if it means we slide back before moving forward.
Our administration botched the search but sometimes I wonder if it's because Lee Fowler really liked Herb and was doing it as a "stick it to the fans" type move. Doubt it but you never know. He has verbally chastised the fanbase several times.
Anyway, hope you can find something nicer to say about us wolfpack fans someday...
Scott
Posted by: Scott at January 27, 2009 1:54 PM