Aging Disgracefully

And therein lies the problem I think the Left faces: however unpopular Bush is, I don't think that translates into much of an affirmative mandate for their ideas. But I am increasingly convinced that the Left has mistaken his unpopularity, primarily due to this single issue, for just such a mandate. I think you are starting to see (as in the Open Left post mentioned above) the kind of wishful thinking and reaching that comes when people are beginning to lose contact with the political mothership.

(Similarly, their indictments of people on the Right are becoming increasingly shrill and silly. It was also recently explained to me that another symptom of the backward outlook of the Right is the dominance of Left-wing blogs (implication: those on the Left are more savvy and, their favorite term, progressive on the technological front as well). I'm less than convinced. First, has anyone really scientifically surveyed this? Second, if memory serves the Right-wing blogosphere (to the extent that the term is appropriate to describe the scene back then) seemed to be the far more active one during the Clinton years. Which leads me to my third point: even if the Left-wing blogosphere is more active right now, that is most likely merely a symptom of the fact that they are still, in terms of the big Kahuna, the opposition.Wait until the Right is back in that position.)

Of course, this may not matter. I suspect the Democrats will win the White House in 2008 (though that is far from assured), and I think the new occupant will be named Hillary. Whatever else I think of her, I do believe that she is a pretty disciplined and grounded politician. Hillary is not a person who goes easily or often to the Kool Aid well, and so hers is likely to be a mightily disappointing administration for the Left-wing blogosphere. But if that is the case, then the current dreamy visions and sweeping triumphalism of the Left are nothing more than meaningless masturbation. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

The only way any of this will matter is if they can exert enough power within the Democratic Party to force people like Hillary to have a serious go at all or some of their ambitions. If that happens (and it has in the recent past: I am convinced that the likes of Michael Moore and MoveOn.org and their ilk, and the contorted posturing they forced Kerry into even as he struggled to maintain a grasp on the middle, were central to Bush's re-election), I am betting that the main beneficiaries will be the Republicans. When you overstep your mandate, American political culture has a way of bringing you back to earth very quickly: just ask Mr. Bush in the wake of his attempted reform of Social Security. The vibes grew terrible, and he could no longer hear himself think over the roar of those damned bats...

As the Bush Presidency continues, I am becoming more convinced that what ails the modern Right is that it has become a victim of its own political success. As a resistance movement in the Seventies looking in, conservatives more or less got it right in diagnosing the sclerosis that had overtaken the country in the wake of the (largely ineffective) New Deal and the (far more effective, and alarmingly so) Great Society and regulatory culture that had grown up in the preceding four decades. The Democrats were (more or less) the establishment. Then Reagan was elected and conservatives were able to put much of their agenda into action, in large part because I think they had gradually built such a strong mandate to do so following Goldwater's defeat (and no, Mr. Krugman, it was not simply an axis of bigotry: lot's of ordinary Americans heard what people like you were peddling back then and simply rejected it).

Here's the problem though: the more you succeed at this business, the less there is of a Left-inspired monstrosity to tear down. You basically run out of fuel, not because you failed but because you succeeded. That is where I see the party now. Some time in the wilderness should be good for it: it will re-focus itself, re-prioritize, impose some political discipline, and the Left will no doubt supply plenty of political oxygen if they do begin to over-reach while in power. Of course, it is possible that the Republicans will, like England's Conservatives, spend a long time in the political wilderness. But American political dynamics suggest that that is unlikely: at the national level ours is just too fiercely competitive a political culture to breath easy for long. In other words, I am betting that 2008 will be more like 1976 than 1932. By the same token, I've never thought much of Right-wing triumphalism about their track record in Presidential politics since 1968: a slight electoral advantage does not a clear pattern make, and in any case the Democrats kept re-taking that hill from time to time.

(And if you want to know what I really, really think: the almost immediately terrible approval ratings for the Democratic-controlled Congress (see below) suggest to me that neither of the two Parties has articulated an agenda that really meets the priorities of the current American electorate.)

To be sure, right now there are real openings for the American Left. I think, for example, that there has been real movement in opinion at the level of American political bedrock on the issue of climate change (traditionally one of their issues). Of course, that does not guarantee success either and the Left better look beyond their old, shop-worn playbook if they want to really translate this into workable, enduring policy.

Liberals are starting to feel a kind of political confidence that they have not enjoyed for a generation. In some limited areas, I do think that is warranted. But, even as they revel in Bush's terrible approval ratings, they would do well to consider those of the Democratic-controlled Congress: their little revolution is marching on thin ice. If they want to stick around and have a more enduring legacy, I might suggest they think about a common piece of advice given to overly demonstrative rookie dunkers in college and pro-Basketball: "act like you've been there before and will be there many more times to come."