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November 26, 2006
Chuck Amato
Ok, OK: I had a lot to say about the Wolfpack Bosies when they drove Sendek out of town.
That was possibly the dumbest personnel move a university has ever made in any context. The subsequent search for a replacement showed up the hubris of the idiots who drove Coach Sendek from Raleigh: NC State is nowhere near the plum spot they thought it was, in large part because of the negative vibes created by Herb's treatment.
Given a generally incredibly weak recruiting position (he inherited a program that I would argue was in the opening phases of a death spiral) compounded by the competition from the two 800 lb gorillas down I-40, I thought Herb did an amazing job rebuilding State. The fans hated his Princeton thing, but through it he made the best of a weak hand and was steadily rebuilding State in the process, setbacks (eg Josh "I'm a moron" Powell bolting early) and all notwithstanding. It should have told them something that Duke and the Heels weren't crazy about NC State's Princeton thing either.
The truth is that the larger picture on Sendek was clear, and their misguided rage backfired. They could not get any of the big names that they predicted would be begging for the position. And the reason is simple: you don't get to be a big name coach by drinking the kind of Kool Aid that sustains most Pack fans. The free agent big dogs knew that the expectations of the Pack's rabid Wolves were wholly unrealistic, and that Sendek had essentially maximized the progress of the program at every phase of his tenure there. They knew they had no "miracle" answer Sendek had been unable to offer, and hence wisely decided to avoid the Wolf pit.
Let's face it, a team that made the NCAAs for, what was it, five years in a row (?), will now be lucky to make the NITs in two years time.
But all that is now done. The question before the Pack now is: whither Chuck?
With an overall record of 49-37 (25-31 in the ACC), a useful reference for Chuck might be UNC's recently departed John Bunting (27-45 overall, I believe). On paper, Bunting certainly looks worse than Amato. However, I think that two factors must be accounted for in any comparison:
1. Chuck inherited some awesome recruits. Most importantly, he had Philip Rivers, who I believe was an O'Cain recruit (rapid Pack fans should feel free to set me straight if I'm wrong about that).
2. I think it is fair to say that, overall, Bunting's teams have played a far more punishing non-conference schedule than Amato's squads.
Once you factor these two things in, I'm not sure that Amato really is any better than Bunting. The direct Celebrity Death Matches between the two in the post-Philip Rivers era certainly suggest that Amato is no better.
If we assume that UNC did indeed make the right move by dropping Bunting, I think the Pack would be doing the right thing by chucking Chuck. After all, Sendek was a far better basketball coach than Amato has proven on the gridiron (to the extent that you can compare such apples and oranges), and they had no problem tossing Herb.
Update: Another important question is that of trend. Here the Herb-Chuck distinction becomes even more glaring: by virtually any yardstick of performance, Herb's teams were getting better and better with time.
The same cannot be said of post-Philip Rivers Pack football.
Posted by dag at November 26, 2006 3:41 PM